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The current housing boom will flatten in 2022—or possibly early 2023—when mortgage interest rates rise. There is no bubble to burst, though prices may retreat from panic-buying highs.
While large investors have the money and expertise to survive rent embargoes, many smaller landlords have been left in the lurch.
Lumber and plywood prices have jumped through the roof in the U.S. Building materials prices will retreat in 2022, returning to pre-pandemic levels by 2023. They reflect housing-specific issues, not general inflation.
For the time being, growth looks secure. Risks grow for the longer-term.
The end of the Covid-19 pandemic will help all cities, but greater competition among cities means that poor governance will have worse impacts.
Presently, the suburbs are gaining at the expense of the cities, but in time, the suburbs may well lose out to small towns and the exurbs.
Housing starts in the United States last year exceeded population growth. Rising interest rates in 2022 or later will coincide with much cheaper apartment rentals, hurting single family home demand. Prices may not fall, but heady appreciation will be over.
In Portland, Oregon, continued violence and vandalism have combined with high housing costs, homelessness and poor community leadership to raise the question: how long before this city dies?
The eyes that really matter the most are those of federal and state tax authorities charged with reviewing whether or not Trump and the Trump Organization followed tax laws.
On Wednesday, a New York State judge ordered the President’s son to answer questions, under oath, by October 7th. Which begs a different question: is Eric Trump the presidential campaign’ next October surprise?